Estimation of under-reported visceral Leishmaniasis (Vl) cases in Bihar: a Bayesian approach

Published

2013-12-31

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Original Article

Authors

  • A Ranjan
  • T Bhatnagar

Abstract

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a major health problem in the state of Bihar and adjoining areas in India. In absence of any active surveillance mechanism for the disease, there seems to be gross under-reporting of VL cases. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate extent of under-reporting of VL cases in Bihar using pooled analysis of published papers. Method: We calculated the pooled common ratio (RRMH) based on three studies and combined it with a prior distribution of ratio using inverse-variance weighting method. Bayesian method was used to estimate the posterior distribution of the “under-reporting factor” (ratio of unreported to reported cases). Results: The posterior distribution of ratio of unreported to reported cases yielded a mean of 3.558, with 95% posterior limits of 2.81 and 4.50. Conclusion: Bayesian approach gives evidence to the fact that the total number of VL cases in the state may be nearly more than three times that of currently reported figures.

 

How to Cite

1.
Ranjan A, Bhatnagar T. Estimation of under-reported visceral Leishmaniasis (Vl) cases in Bihar: a Bayesian approach. Indian J Community Health [Internet]. 2013 Dec. 31 [cited 2022 Nov. 27];25(4):386-90. Available from: https://iapsmupuk.org/journal/index.php/IJCH/article/view/347

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